Judge Roy Moore has a solid eight-point lead over establishment-backed opponent Sen. Luther Strange just days before voters go to the polls in the Alabama Republican primary, according to a Big League-Gravis poll of the race released Sunday.
According to the poll, Moore leads Strange 48 percent to 40 percent among registered voters. Among likely voters that lead jumps to 11 points — 52-41 percent. Moore leads with both men (50-42 percent) and women (45-37 percent.)
The poll was conducted Thursday and Friday with 559 registered voters. It came before President Trump campaigned for Strange in Huntsville Friday night. Ten percent of voters are undecided and the poll carries a 4.1 percent margin of error.
Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis, said that while the race can still go toward Strange, he may have to resort to snagging new Democrats to vote in a Republican primary.
“The dynamics can change if the undecideds break towards Strange,” he said. “Then, there is the factor of how many show up. It’s illegal for Democrats to vote if they voted in the Democratic primary last month, so Strange has to get new Democratic voters, who did not vote in the primary to show up for him.”
It is unclear how President Trump’s appearance will tilt the numbers. Although Trump is popular in the state, Kaplan believes Moore’s lead will hold. This may be in part to Trump’s slightly unenthusiastic endorsement of Strange.
While Trump endorsed Strange and called him a “real fighter and a real good guy,” Trump also admitted he “might have made a mistake” and also said he would campaign for Moore if he won on Tuesday.
“By the way, both good men and you know what, I told Luther … if his opponent wins, I’m going to be here campaigning like hell for him,” he said.
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